Contest-Driven Development of Orbital Tourist Vehicles

We explore the size and structure of prizes intended to promote private development of orbital tourist vehicles. While inspired by the Ansari X-Prize, we argue that prizes to spur orbital tourism development must be much larger and structured to reward continued development, rather than a few flights. Mechanisms to promote development of extremely reliable vehicles are also discussed. This paper does not examine the technology or techniques necessary to develop orbital vehicles, but rather the structure of incentives to encourage such development. Analysis suggests that total prize money of one to eight billion dollars may be sufficient to jump start orbital tourism, particularly if sub-orbital tourism proves profitable. This sum is within the means of a few extremely wealthy individuals and foundations. While there is no guarantee of success, the cost of failure is minimal since no prize is awarded if no vehicle is developed.